Championship · Matchweek 8
Burnley
BUR
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Burnley42%
Draw27%
Derby31%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.28
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby will have the ball; Burnley will not mind.
47%Possession58%
36%Territory51%
16%From set plays24%
0.07Chance quality0.06
6.1%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Burnley, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.