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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 22

Union St.Gilloise

UNI

Westerlo

WES

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union St.Gilloise55%
Draw23%
Westerlo22%

Expected goals

2.01 – 1.25

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.8%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession47%
41%Territory35%
41%From set plays39%
0.14Chance quality0.13
5.1%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Union St.Gilloise, 3 for Westerlo. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.