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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 20

Genk

GEK

Royal Antwerp

ROY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Genk59%
Draw22%
Royal Antwerp19%

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.14

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–19.7%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession48%
44%Territory38%
27%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genk, 3 for Royal Antwerp. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.