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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 16

Gent

GEN

Royal Antwerp

ROY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Gent59%
Draw23%
Royal Antwerp18%

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.03

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.5%
  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.6%
  • 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession48%
32%Territory38%
36%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.08
8.0%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gent, 3 for Royal Antwerp. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.