Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 16
Genk
GEK
Lommel
LOM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genk53%
Draw25%
Lommel22%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.02
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession48%
44%Territory28%
27%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.7%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genk, 3 for Lommel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.