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Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 16

Genk

GEK

Lommel

LOM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Genk53%
Draw25%
Lommel22%

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.02

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1011.9%
  • 1111.5%
  • 219.7%
  • 209.3%
  • 007.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession48%
44%Territory28%
27%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.7%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genk, 3 for Lommel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.