Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 14
Genk
GEK
OH Leuven
OHL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Genk53%
Draw26%
OH Leuven21%
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.98
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession54%
44%Territory36%
27%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Genk, 4 for OH Leuven. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.