Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 12
Lommel
LOM
Standard Liège
STA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lommel32%
Draw26%
Standard Liège42%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.55
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession50%
28%Territory39%
24%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.19
5.9%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lommel, 3 for Standard Liège. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.