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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 9

Union St.Gilloise

UNI

Cercle Brugge

CER

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union St.Gilloise58%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge19%

Expected goals

1.91 – 1.03

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.7%
  • 1–110.4%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.6%
  • 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession53%
41%Territory37%
41%From set plays38%
0.14Chance quality0.08
5.1%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Union St.Gilloise, 3 for Cercle Brugge. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Cercle Brugge

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.