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Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 9

OH Leuven

OHL

Lommel

LOM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

OH Leuven41%
Draw28%
Lommel31%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.20

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.6%
  • 1010.8%
  • 019.0%
  • 218.7%
  • 008.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession48%
36%Territory28%
22%From set plays24%
0.08Chance quality0.09
6.4%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for OH Leuven, 3 for Lommel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.