Swiss Super League · Matchweek 22
St. Gallen
STG
Basel
BAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Gallen39%
Draw32%
Basel29%
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.96
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession61%
35%Territory50%
31%From set plays40%
0.11Chance quality0.06
7.8%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for St. Gallen, 2 for Basel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.