Swiss Super League · Matchweek 21
Lugano
LUG
Lausanne
LAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lugano48%
Draw29%
Lausanne23%
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.90
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.2%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession50%
37%Territory39%
20%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.9%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Lugano, 4 for Lausanne.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 48 matches, not the full season.