Swiss Super League · Matchweek 21
Lugano
LUG
Lausanne
LAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lugano60%
Draw23%
Lausanne17%
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession42%
41%Territory40%
8%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.14
8.6%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lugano, 2 for Lausanne. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.