Swiss Super League · Matchweek 17
Lugano
LUG
Thun
THU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lugano50%
Draw26%
Thun24%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.06
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession52%
37%Territory41%
20%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.9%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Lugano, 5 for Thun.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 48 matches, not the full season.