Swiss Super League · Matchweek 17
Lugano
LUG
Thun
THU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lugano52%
Draw24%
Thun23%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.16
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession55%
41%Territory40%
8%From set plays45%
0.10Chance quality0.14
8.6%Directness8.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lugano, 2 for Thun. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.