Swiss Super League · Matchweek 13
Thun
THU
Basel
BAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Thun43%
Draw28%
Basel30%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.17
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession61%
40%Territory50%
45%From set plays40%
0.14Chance quality0.06
8.9%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Thun, 2 for Basel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.