Swiss Super League · Matchweek 13
St. Gallen
STG
Lugano
LUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Gallen31%
Draw30%
Lugano38%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.23
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession44%
35%Territory41%
31%From set plays8%
0.11Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for St. Gallen, 2 for Lugano. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.