Swiss Super League · Matchweek 13
St. Gallen
STG
Lugano
LUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Gallen37%
Draw29%
Lugano34%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.21
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession54%
46%Territory37%
29%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.3%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for St. Gallen, 5 for Lugano.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 48 matches, not the full season.