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Swiss Super League · Matchweek 13

St. Gallen

STG

Lugano

LUG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

St. Gallen37%
Draw29%
Lugano34%

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.21

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1113.0%
  • 1010.8%
  • 0110.2%
  • 009.6%
  • 218.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession54%
46%Territory37%
29%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.3%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for St. Gallen, 5 for Lugano.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 48 matches, not the full season.