Swiss Super League · Matchweek 12
Lugano
LUG
Basel
BAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lugano48%
Draw28%
Basel25%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.03
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession49%
37%Territory40%
20%From set plays7%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Lugano, 4 for Basel.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 48 matches, not the full season.