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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 19

Pogoń Szczecin

POG

Cracovia

CRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Pogoń Szczecin48%
Draw26%
Cracovia25%

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.13

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–08.1%
  • 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession50%
39%Territory54%
22%From set plays18%
0.14Chance quality0.07
6.3%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Pogoń Szczecin, 3 for Cracovia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 114 matches, not the full season.