Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 19
Lech Poznań
LEC
Wieczysta Kraków
WIE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lech Poznań78%
Draw13%
Wieczysta Kraków9%
Expected goals
3.04 – 1.05
Over 2.5
77%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-2.00
Most likely scorelines
- 3–18.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–07.9%
- 4–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession54%
35%Territory48%
13%From set plays23%
0.14Chance quality0.10
4.0%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lech Poznań, 3 for Wieczysta Kraków. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 114 matches, not the full season.