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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 19

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Motor Lublin

MOT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok44%
Draw24%
Motor Lublin32%

Expected goals

1.87 – 1.58

Over 2.5

65%

Both to score

68%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.7%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–27.2%
  • 2–27.0%
  • 1–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Motor Lublin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession57%
38%Territory47%
13%From set plays38%
0.13Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for Motor Lublin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 114 matches, not the full season.