Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 19
Górnik Zabrze
GRN
Korona Kielce
KOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Górnik Zabrze63%
Draw23%
Korona Kielce14%
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.77
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession54%
51%Territory46%
18%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.06
5.4%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Górnik Zabrze, 3 for Korona Kielce. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 114 matches, not the full season.