Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 18
Motor Lublin
MOT
Widzew Łódź
WID
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Motor Lublin63%
Draw21%
Widzew Łódź16%
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.01
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–110.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–09.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession55%
47%Territory36%
38%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.7%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Motor Lublin, 3 for Widzew Łódź. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 115 matches, not the full season.