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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 18

Legia Warszawa

LEG

Pogoń Szczecin

POG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Legia Warszawa46%
Draw28%
Pogoń Szczecin25%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.02

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.7%
  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–09.7%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

51%Possession45%
37%Territory39%
23%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.14
4.9%Directness6.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Pogoń Szczecin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.