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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 18

Korona Kielce

KOR

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Korona Kielce28%
Draw24%
Jagiellonia Białystok48%

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.83

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.4%
  • 1–29.3%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 2–16.9%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession56%
47%Territory38%
27%From set plays13%
0.06Chance quality0.13
4.9%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Korona Kielce, 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 114 matches, not the full season.