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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 18

Korona Kielce

KOR

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Korona Kielce29%
Draw25%
Jagiellonia Białystok45%

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.69

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 2–17.1%
  • 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession56%
46%Territory38%
27%From set plays13%
0.06Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Korona Kielce, 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 115 matches, not the full season.