Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 18
Cracovia
CRA
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cracovia24%
Draw25%
Lech Poznań51%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.69
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.5%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession52%
54%Territory35%
17%From set plays13%
0.07Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cracovia, 3 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.