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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 17

Wieczysta Kraków

WIE

Korona Kielce

KOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wieczysta Kraków42%
Draw25%
Korona Kielce33%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.53

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.4%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–27.6%
  • 1–07.1%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession44%
47%Territory37%
24%From set plays34%
0.11Chance quality0.07
4.4%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Wieczysta Kraków, 2 for Korona Kielce. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.