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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 17

Radomiak Radom

RAD

Raków Częstochowa

RAK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Radomiak Radom50%
Draw22%
Raków Częstochowa28%

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.55

Over 2.5

69%

Both to score

70%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–18.9%
  • 1–18.8%
  • 2–26.9%
  • 1–26.4%
  • 1–06.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession55%
38%Territory43%
36%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.9%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Radomiak Radom, 5 for Raków Częstochowa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.