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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 17

Piast Gliwice

PIA

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Piast Gliwice34%
Draw24%
Jagiellonia Białystok42%

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.78

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.1%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–17.6%
  • 2–27.0%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession56%
37%Territory38%
16%From set plays13%
0.09Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Piast Gliwice, 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.