Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 17
Motor Lublin
MOT
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Motor Lublin22%
Draw22%
Lech Poznań56%
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.03
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession53%
41%Territory42%
18%From set plays18%
0.13Chance quality0.11
6.5%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Motor Lublin, 4 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.