Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16
Wisła Kraków
WIS
Motor Lublin
MOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wisła Kraków49%
Draw24%
Motor Lublin27%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.34
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession46%
38%Territory41%
26%From set plays18%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.0%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wisła Kraków, 3 for Motor Lublin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.