Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16
Wisła Kraków
WIS
Motor Lublin
MOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wisła Kraków33%
Draw25%
Motor Lublin41%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.65
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession57%
39%Territory47%
27%From set plays38%
0.10Chance quality0.10
3.6%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wisła Kraków, 3 for Motor Lublin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 115 matches, not the full season.