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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16

Raków Częstochowa

RAK

Piast Gliwice

PIA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Raków Częstochowa35%
Draw24%
Piast Gliwice41%

Expected goals

1.64 – 1.77

Over 2.5

65%

Both to score

68%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 1–28.4%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 2–27.1%
  • 0–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession56%
43%Territory38%
26%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness3.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Piast Gliwice. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.