Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16
Lech Poznań
LEC
Pogoń Szczecin
POG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lech Poznań64%
Draw20%
Pogoń Szczecin16%
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.12
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession46%
35%Territory38%
13%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.11
4.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lech Poznań, 3 for Pogoń Szczecin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 115 matches, not the full season.