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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16

Lech Poznań

LEC

Pogoń Szczecin

POG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lech Poznań59%
Draw22%
Pogoń Szczecin19%

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.08

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.1%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–09.2%
  • 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Pogoń Szczecin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession45%
42%Territory40%
18%From set plays48%
0.11Chance quality0.10
4.4%Directness6.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lech Poznań, 3 for Pogoń Szczecin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.