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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Radomiak Radom

RAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok53%
Draw22%
Radomiak Radom25%

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.41

Over 2.5

67%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–19.1%
  • 1–06.9%
  • 2–06.6%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession53%
38%Territory49%
13%From set plays20%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for Radomiak Radom. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 115 matches, not the full season.