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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Radomiak Radom

RAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok53%
Draw22%
Radomiak Radom25%

Expected goals

2.11 – 1.43

Over 2.5

67%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–19.0%
  • 1–06.7%
  • 2–26.6%
  • 2–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Radomiak Radom get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession47%
36%Territory38%
12%From set plays36%
0.12Chance quality0.11
4.6%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for Radomiak Radom. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.