Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16
Górnik Zabrze
GRN
Wisła Płock
WIA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Górnik Zabrze55%
Draw25%
Wisła Płock20%
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.95
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession50%
44%Territory40%
33%From set plays46%
0.14Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Górnik Zabrze, 3 for Wisła Płock. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Górnik Zabrze
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.