Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16
Górnik Zabrze
GRN
Wisła Płock
WIA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Górnik Zabrze64%
Draw23%
Wisła Płock13%
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.70
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.4%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession45%
51%Territory33%
18%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Górnik Zabrze, 3 for Wisła Płock. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.