Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 15
Wisła Płock
WIA
Legia Warszawa
LEG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wisła Płock26%
Draw32%
Legia Warszawa41%
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.15
Over 2.5
33%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.3%
- 0–014.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
33%Territory37%
10%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.08
5.9%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wisła Płock, 3 for Legia Warszawa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.