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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 15

Wieczysta Kraków

WIE

Motor Lublin

MOT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wieczysta Kraków22%
Draw21%
Motor Lublin57%

Expected goals

1.39 – 2.24

Over 2.5

69%

Both to score

68%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.3%
  • 1–18.5%
  • 1–36.8%
  • 0–26.7%
  • 0–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Motor Lublin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession57%
48%Territory47%
23%From set plays38%
0.10Chance quality0.10
3.9%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wieczysta Kraków, 3 for Motor Lublin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 115 matches, not the full season.