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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 15

Raków Częstochowa

RAK

Widzew Łódź

WID

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Raków Częstochowa35%
Draw26%
Widzew Łódź39%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.58

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–18.0%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession50%
43%Territory38%
26%From set plays33%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Widzew Łódź. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.