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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 15

Pogoń Szczecin

POG

Śląsk Wrocław

LSK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Pogoń Szczecin53%
Draw22%
Śląsk Wrocław25%

Expected goals

2.07 – 1.41

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–19.2%
  • 1–07.0%
  • 2–06.6%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession39%
38%Territory37%
26%From set plays11%
0.11Chance quality0.16
5.5%Directness7.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pogoń Szczecin, 3 for Śląsk Wrocław. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 115 matches, not the full season.