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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 15

Cracovia

CRA

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cracovia31%
Draw26%
Jagiellonia Białystok43%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.57

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 0–19.4%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 1–07.6%
  • 2–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession56%
54%Territory38%
17%From set plays13%
0.07Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cracovia, 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.