Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 14
Legia Warszawa
LEG
Raków Częstochowa
RAK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Legia Warszawa63%
Draw20%
Raków Częstochowa17%
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.18
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession55%
46%Territory43%
28%From set plays26%
0.16Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Legia Warszawa, 5 for Raków Częstochowa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.