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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 14

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

GKS Katowice

GKS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok46%
Draw24%
GKS Katowice30%

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.50

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

66%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–27.0%
  • 1–06.9%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

GKS Katowice get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession50%
38%Territory40%
13%From set plays32%
0.13Chance quality0.20
4.3%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for GKS Katowice. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 115 matches, not the full season.