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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 14

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

GKS Katowice

GKS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok46%
Draw24%
GKS Katowice30%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.47

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 1–07.3%
  • 1–27.1%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession47%
36%Territory45%
12%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness3.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for GKS Katowice. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.