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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 13

Górnik Zabrze

GRN

Legia Warszawa

LEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Górnik Zabrze49%
Draw26%
Legia Warszawa25%

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.16

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–08.0%
  • 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession54%
44%Territory46%
33%From set plays28%
0.14Chance quality0.16
5.4%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Górnik Zabrze, 3 for Legia Warszawa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.