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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 12

Widzew Łódź

WID

Górnik Zabrze

GRN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Widzew Łódź28%
Draw28%
Górnik Zabrze45%

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.47

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 0–111.5%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–08.6%
  • 1–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession46%
38%Territory44%
33%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.14
6.5%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Widzew Łódź, 5 for Górnik Zabrze. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.