Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 12
Pogoń Szczecin
POG
Radomiak Radom
RAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pogoń Szczecin52%
Draw23%
Radomiak Radom25%
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.35
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession47%
40%Territory38%
48%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.11
6.6%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pogoń Szczecin, 3 for Radomiak Radom. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Radomiak Radom
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.