Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 12
Legia Warszawa
LEG
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Legia Warszawa34%
Draw26%
Lech Poznań40%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.53
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession53%
46%Territory42%
28%From set plays18%
0.16Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Legia Warszawa, 4 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.