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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 12

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Wisła Płock

WIA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok45%
Draw26%
Wisła Płock29%

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.31

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 1–27.1%
  • 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Wisła Płock get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession50%
36%Territory40%
12%From set plays46%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.6%Directness3.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for Wisła Płock. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.