Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 11

Lech Poznań

LEC

Korona Kielce

KOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lech Poznań60%
Draw23%
Korona Kielce17%

Expected goals

1.93 – 0.98

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.1%
  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–010.1%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession47%
42%Territory42%
18%From set plays32%
0.11Chance quality0.11
4.4%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lech Poznań, 4 for Korona Kielce.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.