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Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 11

Cracovia

CRA

Legia Warszawa

LEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cracovia34%
Draw28%
Legia Warszawa38%

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.39

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.5%
  • 019.9%
  • 109.1%
  • 128.5%
  • 008.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession54%
43%Territory46%
41%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.16
4.9%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cracovia, 3 for Legia Warszawa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.