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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 10

Raków Częstochowa

RAK

GKS Katowice

GKS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Raków Częstochowa33%
Draw24%
GKS Katowice43%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.80

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.0%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–17.5%
  • 2–27.0%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession47%
43%Territory45%
26%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness3.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for GKS Katowice. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.