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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 10

Legia Warszawa

LEG

Wisła Kraków

WIS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Legia Warszawa52%
Draw24%
Wisła Kraków23%

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.16

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.2%
  • 0–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession48%
46%Territory38%
28%From set plays26%
0.16Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Wisła Kraków. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.