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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 10

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Górnik Zabrze

GRN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok31%
Draw26%
Górnik Zabrze43%

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.59

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 2–17.4%
  • 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Górnik Zabrze get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession46%
36%Territory44%
12%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.6%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 5 for Górnik Zabrze.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.