Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 9
Motor Lublin
MOT
Górnik Zabrze
GRN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Motor Lublin24%
Draw24%
Górnik Zabrze52%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.84
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession46%
41%Territory44%
18%From set plays33%
0.13Chance quality0.14
6.5%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Motor Lublin, 5 for Górnik Zabrze. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.